Thursday, November 12

Anthony Davis missed two games with a sprained right ankle, then went to Detroit on Monday and made the injury look like a clerical error: 44 points on 16-of-21 shooting and 13 rebounds in 34 minutes. Bilal Coulibaly is also off Washington's injury report after sitting out that game with a hand issue. Indiana's injury list is going the wrong way. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain, and Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out long term. T.J. McConnell is questionable with a hamstring of his own and has played 9 and 8 minutes in his two games back. That leaves Andrew Nembhard and rookie Braden Smith running the offense while Pascal Siakam does the heavy lifting. Home hasn't helped either: the Pacers are 0-4 at Gainbridge, a building they've treated like a short-term rental, and 1-7 over their last eight. The real worry is the schedule. This is Washington's fourth game in six nights and the last stop of a road trip. The Wizards host Detroit tomorrow, while Indiana doesn't play again until Friday. Tired legs in the fourth quarter are how this goes wrong, which is why we took Washington +3.5 at -110 at FanDuel instead of needing an outright win. If this ends as a close loss on late free throws, we still cash.

Golden State comes into Houston with five players ruled out: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Brandon Williams and Kristaps Porzingis. Will Richard is questionable with a torn thumb ligament. Most of the wing and guard depth is gone, and the frontcourt comes down to Draymond Green and Al Horford. That is a problem against a Houston team that grabbed 15 offensive rebounds against Denver on Monday without Clint Capela or Steven Adams. Oscar Tshiebwe came off the injury report Tuesday, so Alperen Sengun has a backup again. The Rockets are 5-1 at Toyota Center, and all five wins came by double digits, including Oklahoma City by 21 and Boston by 16. Both teams are 8-3 and the Warriors' eight-game streak is real. Still, their average margin drops from +9.2 to +5.0 once you take out Monday's 138-87 win over a Pelicans team missing Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III. The real threat is Stephen Curry. He is averaging 30.6 points, played only 21 minutes Monday, and leads a team that puts up nearly 41 threes a night. All three meetings last season were decided by four points or fewer. We took Houston at -215 at BetRivers because one guy can win a quarter, but over 48 minutes a five-man rotation running on fumes has a lot of floor to cover.

Kent State has played five road games this season and scored 22 points in all of them combined, including 7 at Western Michigan and 10 in a 31-10 loss at Sacramento State on Oct. 30. The Golden Flashes are last in FBS at 14.3 points per game, and they can't fall back on the run game: 99.2 rushing yards a game at 3.0 a carry. That makes our Bowling Green moneyline at -190 at BetRivers a matchup read. The Falcons' defense gives up yards on the ground (212 a game), which is the one thing Kent State can't take advantage of. Through the air it's a different defense: 10th nationally at 168.8 passing yards allowed, with 22 sacks, nine from Myles Bradley. That leaves Dru DeShields, completing 55.8 percent, throwing into the strongest part of the Falcons' defense. Even when Kent State moves the ball, the drive tends to die: a 59.3 percent red zone rate, also last in the country, and a minus-7 turnover margin that includes five giveaways in that Sacramento State loss. Kent State's offense is a road trip with no destination. Bowling Green is 2-7 with three straight losses, but the Falcons have outscored MAC opponents 127-116 while Kent State sits at 88-115. The real worry is leading rusher Austyn Dendy, who has a fractured hand, missed the Oct. 31 game and has no confirmed status for tonight. Against an offense this allergic to the end zone, the home side needs only an ordinary night.

Washington games have been fireworks, with 10 of 15 clearing 6.5, but the fuse looks short. The Capitals average 27.8 shots and 3.53 goals a game this season. That works out to about 12.7 percent shooting, a rate that usually comes back to earth like a dropped glove. Ottawa takes just 25.7 shots a night and is still without left wings William Eklund, Warren Foegele and Andre Burakovsky, so the attack leans hard on its top guys. Only 6 of the Senators' 18 games have gone over 6.5. In goal, Logan Thompson is at .888 this season against a .910 career mark, and Ottawa has been his favorite opponent: 6-1-1 with a .929 in eight career games. At the other end, Linus Ullmark was 7-1-0 with a .945 before missing eight games. He came off injured reserve Sunday and practiced fully Monday. He is expected to start but has not been confirmed, and that is the hinge. If Ottawa gives Samuel Ersson (.890 this season) one more night, this total loses much of its appeal. We took the Under 6.5 at -120 at BetMGM. With Ullmark in the crease, even a 4-2 final lands in our column instead of getting its money back.

The Lakers reach Atlanta on the second night of a road back-to-back, and the player who usually makes that bearable is a question mark. Luka Doncic, averaging 40.1 points through nine games, sat Sunday's 121-116 win at Detroit with lower back tightness. It's the second time this season the back has cost him a game, and as of Monday morning the Lakers still hadn't filed a report for this one. Austin Reaves covered for him with 43 points on 14-of-27 shooting. Quentin Grimes, who started in Doncic's spot, left with a finger injury, and his status for tonight is also unclear. Atlanta spent Sunday on the couch. The Hawks last played Saturday, when Jalen Johnson came back from a three-game ankle absence and put up 30 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists against Brooklyn. They lead the league in field goal attempts and second-chance points, and the Lakers rank 28th in rebounding. That's a lot of loose balls for legs that just got off a plane. We took the Hawks at +112 at BetRivers. The real risk is the afternoon injury report: if Doncic is cleared, this is a different game. Until then, we want the rested home team with its best player back, not a road roster held together by athletic tape and a boarding pass.

Charlotte has been scoring like it gets billed by the basket. Through ten games the Hornets are last in the league at 96.3 points a game, with a 99.7 offensive rating, 28.8 percent from three and a 96.7 pace. They did all that with Brandon Miller (20.6 a game) and Dennis Schroder available. Monday both are out, and so are Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams, with Moussa Diabate questionable. That leaves most of the shot creation to Naz Reid and Coby White, who missed the first seven games with a calf injury and went 1 of 8 against Boston on Friday. Charlotte usually sets the ceiling in its own games. Its ten totals average 206.5 and seven stayed under 214.5. Even its three blowout losses, to Atlanta, Detroit and Boston, finished at 209, 215 and 199. Cleveland comes in on its third game in four nights to open a three-game road trip. Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson are out, Jarrett Allen is questionable with a knee contusion, and the Cavaliers just scored 97 against New York. The real pushback is Cleveland's own scoreboard: Cavaliers games average 231.1 and eight of ten went past 214.5, so a Charlotte shooting thaw is how this goes over. We took Under 215.5 at -110 at BetRivers. Tired legs against a lineup running on spare parts should keep this one slow.